Oscars - you watching them? Yeah, me neither...

... but that doesn't mean I am uninterested in knowing who wins, or above some casual speculation about the contenders and pretenders. I will preface all this by saying that if I were still in Roanoke, I'd have seen more Oscar-nominated movies, and that in at least one category I'd be doing a little better than flying blind, that being....

1) Best Actor - Richard Jenkins, Frank Langella, Sean Penn, Brad Pitt, Mickey Rourke
Yeah, not seeing the movies for the two front-runners is gonna make this very hard. I don't think Pitt wins for this polarizing movie, and Richard Jenkins seems to be the guy for whom the nomination is essentially his win. This is a shame because I really liked the movie, and thought he was great. And besides, I liked him better than Pitt in Burn After Reading as well. But anyway, as mentioned in a previous blog, I was at times quite captivated by Langella's performance in Frost/Nixon, but I think the only way he adds an Oscar to his Tony is if the voters who for some reason can't go between Sean Penn and Mickey Rourke go his way. I'm gonna lean towards Sean Penn here, but if I somehow carve time out this weekend to see movies, I reserve the right to change my mind.
Preference: Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Bet: Sean Penn, Milk

2) Best Actress - Anne Hathaway, Angelina Jolie, Melissa Leo, Meryl Streep, Kate Winslet
I was gonna make some sweet comment about Jolie and Brad Pitt both being nominated, and making comparisons to Paul Newman/Joanne Woodward or even Laurence Olivier/Vivien Leigh but then remembered they weren't hitched. Oops. Salad dressing trumps adopted non-American orphans, I guess. Moving on. Jolie, Hathaway and Leo are all supporting movies that didn't get much love in any other major category, and buzz-wise have fallen behind the umpteenth nomination of Streep (though she hasn't won in over 25 years) and Kate Winslet's 6th nomination meaning it's time for the Academy to give the career nod thing. Streep has fans who loved Mamma Mia as well, and Winslet got two Golden Globes for two roles, yet not nominated for Revolutionary Road. Catholic turmoil vs. ex-Nazi turmoil. Finally, just going with my preference.
Preference and Bet: Kate Winslet, The Reader

3) Best Supporting Actor - Josh Brolin, Robert Downey, Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Heath Ledger, Michael Shannon
Admit it, you had to look and say "you mean there are four other people nominated in this category?" Shame for Hoffman and Brolin, but the former has an Oscar, and the latter has been seriously building momentum the last couple of years for another run later. Michael Shannon's nomination was probably the biggest acting surprise, unless you count the fact that there's an acting nomination coming from Tropic Thunder (what kind of odds could you have gotten on that a year ago), Good on ya, Robert Downey, Jr. More comedies should get nominated, but that's another soapbox. For what it's worth, I saw the winning role, found it very powerful, and don't really wanna give away a gimme.
Preference and Bet: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight

4) Best supporting actress - Amy Adams, Penelope Cruz, Viola Davis, Taraji P. Henson, Marisa Tomei
Okay, I expected Kate Winslet to get her Oscar here before the nominations were announced, so here goes nothing. Let's say that Adams and Davis will split votes for their movie (I would have picked Davis outright if this were not the case), Henson's work in this most-nominated movie has the best shot for an acting win, but I don't see it. I am totally in favor of hot older actresses playing strippers (Tomei is much more eager to take off her clothes in recent years. Seen Before The Devil Knows Your Dead? Everybody say "YES!"), but I don't think she's ever gotten the momentum for this to get there. So, I'll play the thing about Woody Allen's actresses doing well on Oscar night.
Preference: Viola Davis, Doubt
Bet: Penelope Cruz, Vicky Christina Barcelona

5) Best director - Danny Boyle, Steven Daldry, David Fincher, Ron Howard, Gus Van Sant
Hmm, I felt all the candidates for the movies I have seen did fine jobs. In previous blog posts I have spoke glowingly about Danny and Opie (just sounds like it should be its own movie or something), and wouldn't fault any of these five. Lemme pull one out here...
Preference: Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Bet: David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

6) Best animated film - Bolt, Kung Fu Panda, Wall-E
Okay, I'm taking an almost certain copout freebie here, but I have two things I want to say. One, Wall-E is one of the movies I have seen, so I should be allowed to pick it if I liked it. Two, I liked it, a lot, and wouldn't have even complained if it had snuck on to the nominees for Best Picture. So there.
Preference and Bet: Wall-E

7) Best picture - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Frost/Nixon, Milk, The Reader, Slumdog Millionaire
My whole discussion should be on whether anyone can slow the momentum of Slumdog Millionaire, which has been quite the critical darling. The Indian fairy tale doesn't have major acting awards to shoulder some of the heavy lifting, and with the exception of Danny Boyle's Director nod, doesn't have any other real place to show love for the film. So, while the serious political messages of Milk make it best placed for the upset, I will say not this year.
Preference and Bet: Slumdog Millionaire

and several other "less major awards" I wanna see how I'd do, with preference/bets going towards movies I saw, wanted to see, or wanna go out on a limb on.

1) Original Screenplay - Milk
2) Adapted Screenplay - John Patrick Shanley, Doubt
3) Foreign-Language Film - The Class
4) Costume Design - The Duchess
5) Cinematography - Slumdog Millionaire
6) Visual Effects - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
7) Sound Editing/Sound Mixing: could I tell the difference? Probably not - The Dark Knight

So have fun, and let's see if I can match my Grammy post....